Polls of Young Voters Show Surge of Enthusiasm for Kamala Harris
While NextGen was gearing up for a “persuasion campaign” with Biden at the top of the ticket, Tzintzún Ramirez says, they’ve moved into a mobilization campaign. “To be quite honest, it felt like we were trying to push a boulder up a hill,” she recalls. “And now, it’s going down [the] hill, and we’re just grabbing on to the momentum that’s there, and making sure there’s as many people climbing on as possible.”
Harris’s campaign is reaching key constituencies of young people
Social Sphere’s polling found that Harris’s margin over Trump has increased most with the youngest voters (18 to 24), women, college students, and Black voters.
NextGen’s analysis of its recent survey emphasized Harris’s performance among young voters of color, in particular how she has “consolidat[ed]” Black voters who were undecided in March. Overall, the organization said, when it comes to young voters of color, 60% prefer Harris, while just 26% prefer Trump. Harris’s level of support from this cohort is 21-points higher than Biden’s was in the group’s March survey. When it comes to Black voters, Harris has a 53-point margin over Trump, which is 36-points higher than Biden’s was in March.
The poll shows Harris with a 17-point margin over Trump with Hispanic/Latino voters, which, NextGen said, marks “a double-digit increase over Biden’s margin” from March. Among that cohort, non-college educated Hispanic/Latino voters, a group that was previously shifting toward Trump, Tzintún Ramirez says, is moving back toward Harris. “For Arizona and Nevada, Latinos make up a really important portion of the electorate, and that was a big surprise shift for us…,” she says, “the level of support she gained amongst young Latino voters as well, especially non-college educated voters.”
Young women lean toward Harris
NextGen’s polling shows that Harris attracts young women, in particular, outperforming Trump with a 36-point margin — twice Biden’s level of support with young women from the March survey.
There’s a motivation bump across the board
Since Harris entered the race, the likelihood that young voters on both sides of the aisle will show up at the ballot box in November has increased, according to a Change Research poll of registered voters ages 18 to 30 in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll, commissioned by Democratic donor Reid Hoffman’s donor network Investing in US, was conducted from July 22-24. The poll found that 80% of registered Democrats and 82% of registered Republicans ages 18 to 30 “rate their motivation to vote as 8 out of 10 or higher.” Meanwhile, in June, just 64% of registered Democrats and 70% of registered Republicans said the same.
Along those lines, young people see room for consensus
In July, America In One Room, a deliberative, in-person polling experience, convened a survey of 430 first-time voters across the political spectrum, done in partnership with self-described “global problem-solving organization” Helena, Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab, Close-Up Foundation, the Generation Lab, and the University of Southern California’s Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making in Washington, DC.
All of the deliberators were first-time voters. Topics discussed included the environment, economy, health care, and democracy. On the last day of the deliberation, Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, and Harris was substituted for Biden’s name in a matchup that included a third-party option. Of all participants, 53% said they preferred Harris, while 27% said they preferred Trump.
