Republicans Win Control of the House in 2022 Midterms, Handing Biden a Divided Congress

Republicans are projected to take control of the House of Representatives. More than a week after the election, they’ve finally secured the 218 seats needed to win control of the House, according to a Wednesday evening projection from NBC News.

But they will have a much smaller majority than they hoped for and than many election experts predicted. Instead of a “red wave” crashing over Congress in the 2022 midterms, Republicans managed to only pick off a handful of vulnerable Democrats to eke out a majority. With eight close races still not yet called, the GOP holds 218 seats compared to 208 for the Democrats, who also managed to retain control of the Senate. (The upcoming Georgia runoff election will determine if the Dems hold on to a 50-seat majority or are able to expand to 51 seats). 

The midterms also saw the progressive wing of the House add to its ranks. In addition to incumbent Squad members like Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), a number of candidates who campaigned on policies like a Green New Deal and student debt relief will be part of the 118th Congress. These include Delia Ramirez, a social service director from Illinois, Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a 25-year-old former March for Our Lives organizer from Orlando, and Becca Balint, who will become Vermont’s first LGBTQ+ and first woman representative in Congress.

For months, election experts had predicted that the Democrats would lose control of the chamber because of a number of factors. First is the basic historical trend: in almost every midterm election since 1946, the sitting president’s party has lost some seats. And the Democrats came into Election Day with just a 220-212 advantage in the House. Thirty-one Democratic incumbents retired this year, many of them in competitive districts, leaving those seats more vulnerable. Geography is another issue. Democratic voters tend to be concentrated in metropolitan areas, while Republicans are spread across rural and suburban areas, giving them a greater advantage, as Five Thirty Eight has noted.

So while Republicans did secure their expected win, it was far from the blowout that it could have been.

Still, these results mean that Republican leaders will have more leeway to set the policy agenda in the House, deciding which bills receive floor consideration and appointing their members to lead the body’s powerful committees. President Biden’s job will also likely get harder in his final two years in office. The GOP has threatened to launch investigations into the business practices of Biden’s youngest son, Hunter, as well as some of his Cabinet members.

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